Favoritism #28: Matches That Will Decide the Brasileirão

In today's round, Athletico-PR and Bahia, both with 46 points, will play the highest-technical-level match of the weekend. If they draw, Fluminense, who faces Corinthians away, could climb to third place. League leaders Flamengo host Bragantino, a team that often draws when playing away, and only one point separates the Rubro-Negro from second-placed Palmeiras, who travel to face Grêmio, which will see the re-debut of coach Renato Gaúcho.

Expected Goals: The Metric Guiding Predictions

Favoritism bases its probabilities on the "Expected Goals" (xG) model, which uses 129,089 shots from 5,205 Brasileirão matches since 2013. The calculation considers distance, angle, home advantage, origin of the play, body part, first shot, team market value, game time, and score difference at the moment of the shot.

60-Day Performance Analysis

The website compares each team's performance over the last 60 days, both home and away, across all competitions, in addition to their last six matches regardless of venue. It also considers defensive and offensive play in aerial and ground plays, excluding Olympic goals, penalties, and direct free kicks.

How the Model Evaluates Players

A player's performance is compared to the average for their position, whether forward, midfielder, defensive midfielder, full-back, or center-back. The model evaluates the expected goal (xG) of each shot, differentiating between "strong foot" and "weak foot" and identifying ambidextrous players who shoot equally well with both feet. For example, out of every hundred shots from the half-moon, only seven become goals, resulting in an xG of approximately 0.07.

Who Conducts the Analysis

Probabilities are calculated by economist Bruno Imaizumi, with support from data collected since 2013 by the Gato Mestre team. The team includes journalists Arthur Sandes, Davi Barros, Felipe Tavares, Guilherme Maniaudet, Gustavo Figueiredo, José Victor Meirinho, Leandro Silva, Lorrayne Vieira (intern), Roberto Maleson, Rodrigo Breves, and Valmir Storti, data scientists Bruno Benício and Vitor Patalano, and programmer Gusthavo Macedo.

Why the Topic is Trending Now

With a decisive round that could change the order of the top spots, fans are seeking detailed information about each match-up. Favoritism offers a complete overview, from recent performance to xG statistics, meeting the demand for precise analyses that influence betting and game understanding.

With information from ge.